MKContext
In today’s world, human capital plays a prominent role in determining the country’s competitive advantage. Fast technological progress, including digitalization and artificial intelligence (AI), puts human capital i.e. the knowledge and skills of the population in the forefront of the country’s economic progress. The World Economic Forum (2019) argues that talent adaptability is critical, namely, that governments should invest in programs that improve the skills of the workforce, therefore enabling it to absorb and contribute to the technology revolution and disruptions. In the last decade, Macedonia managed to reduce the gaps in educational indicators with EU countries, as assessed by early school leavers, share of population with completed tertiary education, etc. However, the quality of education remains subpar, meaning that the quantity improvements did not materialize into higher human capital. The persistent brain drain creates additional deficiencies. Young Macedonians are acquiring very little knowledge in schools, based on international tests such as Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) and Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS). Moreover, a quarter of young people in Macedonia in 2018 were not in education, employment or training (NEETs).
Consequently, the focus of the analysis below is on the TIMSS results recently published.
Performance of Macedonian students in TIMSS
The Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS) is a series of international assessments of the knowledge in mathematics and science of students around the world. The participating students come from a diverse set of educational systems in terms of economic development, geographical location, and population size. In each of the participating educational systems, a minimum of 4,500 to 5,000 students is evaluated. Contextual data about the conditions in which participating students learn mathematics and science are collected from the students and their teachers, their principals, and their parents via questionnaires. Fifty-eight countries around the world participated in TIMSS 2019.
TIMSS gives a possibility to educational systems worldwide to compare students’ educational achievements and to learn from the experiences of others in designing effective education policy. This assessment was first conducted in 1995, and has been administered every four years thereafter. Therefore, some of the participating countries have trend data across assessments from 1995 to 2015. TIMSS assesses fourth and eighth grade students. However, in the case of Macedonia and the countries selected for comparison, the assessment is administered only on students in fourth grade.
Graph 1 shows that in TIMSS 2019, Macedonian fourth graders scored an average of 472 points in mathematics and 426 in science. Within the selected countries from our region, Macedonian students have lower results in mathematics compared to students in Bulgaria, Croatia and Serbia, but scored higher than students in Montenegro, Bosnia and Hercegovina and Kosovo. However, the results of Macedonian students in science are the second weakest in the region, after Kosovo.
Graph 1: Comparative results for Macedonia and neighboring countries for 2019
Source: TIMMS (2019), available at: https://timss2019.org/reports/
Of the 58 countries that participated in TIMSS 2019, Macedonia ranked 45th in mathematics and 51st in science (Graph 2). In the previous round in which Macedonia participated in a set of 42 participating countries (2011), the country ranked 29th in mathematics and 38th in science. This indicates that Macedonia remained at an almost identical relative position in both rounds. The difference between the comparator countries in the two rounds of testing in 2011 and 2019 must be noted, which may affect the final results for the scores and rankings.
Graph 2: Summary results for all participants in the TIMSS 2019 Report Assessment
Source: TIMMS (2019), available at: https://timss2019.org/reports/
Macedonia has so far participated in four rounds of TIMSS (see Graph 3). There is a large variation in results in the period between 1999 and 2019. The trend has been generally declining with lowest results reached in 2011, when the achievement of Macedonian students reached a historic low for the country. The 2011 results were also comparatively low. In 2019, the average score of Macedonian students in mathematics was higher than the result in 1999, whereas science results are much lower than in 1999.
There are a few potential explanations for the improved performance of Macedonian students between the last two rounds of the TIMSS: i) changes that were introduced in the curricula in 2015 and 2016, to bring the curricula closer to the common international structures and content, ii) improved teacher training and iii) the change of teaching styles from a predominantly lecturing style to interactive teaching, in which students are involved in practical activities. For instance, math teachers underwent significant training in numeracy programs between 2009 and 2014 that aimed to improve the instruction in numeracy, to apply creative teaching technics, and to enrich the learning environment. The evaluation of the Teacher Education Program on Early Numeracy and Literacy found that the changes in the organization of the school learning environment, teacher attitudes, expectations and support, increased the student achievements in numeracy by 22 percentage points compared to the baseline.[1] Still, despite the improvement in the students’ performance in TIMSS in mathematics, there is still plenty of room for improvement. Regarding the TIMSS results in science, where the performance of Macedonian students in 2019 is even lower than in 1999, there is a need for an in-depth analysis of the sub tests/areas of the TIMSS test. This analysis can help in understanding the areas in which Macedonian students are showing worst results and low level of knowledge, and can help in designing the necessary interventions and actions for improvement. Similarities and differences between the TIMSS tests and the current national syllabus and national content objectives in science have to be identified. This can provide evidence and guidance for the national authorities on how to adapt the national programs in science to comply with the common international structures and content, and subsequently to improve the relative performance of Macedonian students.
Graph 3: Time series of science and math results for Macedonia 1999 – 2019
[1] https://www.oecd.org/education/ceri/Unicef-Former-Yugoslav-Republic-of-Macedonia-Monitoring-Note-2.pdf
Source: TIMMS (2019), available at: https://timss2019.org/reports/
Way forward
Human capital plays a prominent role in determining the country’s competitive advantage, economic growth and the living standard of citizens. Improvements in the system of acquisition and development of skills and knowledge should be a top government priority. Macedonia has achieved significant progress in the past, in terms of the quantity of education gained and the average educational attainment of the population. However, the country still ranks low in international rankings, which assess the quality of education, i.e. the skills and knowledge acquired in the education system.
Numerous educational reforms have been implemented in the past, but without a clear goal or vision for the education system. With fast changes, technological developments and globalization, among others, it is critical that the education system is flexible, and able to adapt swiftly to the new requirements and needs of the labor market.
Education policymakers should be responsive to the socioeconomic environment and to the existing education framework. The “copy-paste” principle cannot work and bring the desired results. Reforms should be based on evidence, detailed analysis, and involvement of all stakeholders (students, parents, employers, employees, experts, etc.). Every reform should be developed around learning as a central goal, and be coherent with the system components.